I thought it would interesting and fun to examine how and why Donald Trump became the leading contender for the Republican Party's Presidential nomination for? What are the lessons we can learn? Trump is beating the pundits expectations dramatically. Few if any political experts thought he could maintain front runner status for this long.
4 reasons why Donald Trump should NOT be leading the pack?
1. He is misogynistic...(contempt, dislike or prejudice against women)
He judges women by their physical appearance. When referring to fellow Republican Carly Fiorina he said, 'would you vote for that face to be President'. When referencing tough questions from Fox reporter Megan Kelly he said, 'she had blood coming out of her eyes and you know wherever else'. Referring to his own daughter he said, 'if she wasn't my daughter I would probably date her'. He has often called women fat, ugly and many other unpleasant names.
Why would any woman vote for him?
2. He is racist...
Trump has called illegal Mexican immigrants rapists and murderers. He said he would start to deport 11 million of them the day he is elected so fast it would make your head spin.
Why would any Latino citizen vote for him?
3. He is a bully...
He calls his fellow candidates low energy (which is code for lazy) losers, stupid, ugly, incompetent, and nobody's.
Why would any candidate who has been bullied support his campaign against the Democratic candidate, if he were to win.
4. He makes ridiculous claims without any supporting evidence that any of it is possible..
Trump says he would cancel the right to American citizenship when you are born there. This despite the fact that it would require a constitution act of congress.
Trump claims he can solve all of the middle east problems and easily negotiate with Putin and get him to do what he wants.
He would build a massive wall between the US and Mexico and make the Mexicans pay for it. How?
I could go on and on but you get my point?
4 reasons why Trump is leading in the polls...
1. Halo effect..
The Halo Effect is when we assume that if someone is great at one thing, that they will be great at most anything else they do. So when a famous actress gives public advice on medical matters despite having no expertise, and millions follow her advice that is the halo effect.
Even large corporations fall for this. Many times a powerful leader from one industry has been hired away to lead a company in some totally different field and failed massively. Different corporations have different cultures and the skills to run one company are not necessarily the same skills needed at another.
The skills to run a business are not the same skills needed to run a country. The power skills to run a large corporation are not as important as diplomatic skills are to a future President. In business you can just say, 'you're fired' if you don't like the results you are getting, however you can't say. 'you're fired' to congress or the constitution?
When we see someone who projects power, extreme confidence and a clear sense of what needs to be done we assume that they are capable of getting it done. Of course history tells us that many a man with those qualities led his country into a disaster (think Hitler for one) That is the 'Halo effect' working on our non conscious mind.
2. Simple repeatable message with an emotional hook..
In Obama's first election his message was, Yes We Can! Simple, repeatable and an anti-establishment emotional hook.
Trump's message is. Make America Great Again! Again simple, repeatable and with another anti-establishment emotional hook.
To be effective your message has to be heard and seen over and over again. Trump does that.
3. Magical thinking...
Faith healers, psychics, cult leaders, con artists, advertisers and politicians are masters of magical thinking. They promise they have the answer to whatever ails you or your country. A vote or some of your money is all you need to make the problems go away.
We are susceptible to magical thinking, that's why we buy lotto tickets (despite million to one odds) buy stuff we don't need (think beauty products etc) give our money to con artists (think Bernie Maddoff) and vote for politicians who promise us the moon and deliver us into recessions.
We can't help ourselves, we just want so hard to believe in the quick fix.
Donald Trump is the master of magical thinking. He tells voter he will be God's greatest job creating President ever! (no explanation how except that he knows some very very smart people). He says he will make the world bow down to the US....we will win so many times that you will get tired of winning! He will deport 11 million people and change right to citizenship for illegals born here, so fast it will make your head spin.
When pushed on how he is going to do all of this, he says he is very very rich and knows lots of really smart people. Not big on details because details destroy magical thinking.
4. Appeals to fears and prejudices...
Trump is taping into the fears of many white citizens that black and brown people are over taking the country. He is also taping into the strong anti establishment feelings in his party. Many of them fear that they are losing influence and Trump they think is the man to stick it to the old boys.
Trump whenever he is pushed on his racist or misogynistic comments will often say, well I just don't have time for political correctness. What does that really mean? It means he is giving himself and his supporters the right to say mean and hateful stuff under the guise that they are not putting up with political correctness. Those who share his stated beliefs are only too happy to excuse him for insulting or demeaning others.
5. Donald Trump is a show man...
Trump wants to project extreme wealth so he flies around in a massive plane with his name plastered over it. What other billionaire (think Gates or Buffet who are many times wealthier than him) who would do that? They are confident in their wealth and don't have need to be so garish. However, Trump does know that if you want the job, you have to look the part, so he flies around in a plane that at least in size matches Air Force One (the Presidents plane).
When Trump speaks he literally owns the podium. He doesn't need a teleprompter because he wants to display extreme confidence and of course mocks the others that do. He doesn't give speeches he just rambles and entertains. Saying outrageous stuff and making fun of or insulting others. It's quite a show and like a car accident even if you don't want to look, you can't help yourself.
So can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? In my mind, maybe.
Can he become President? Almost certainly not.
Why? Because he has offended to many blocks of voters. It is near impossible to see him winning a majority of women, latino's and blacks to remain in contention.
Still there is a perverse pleasure in watching and waiting for the next outrageous thing to come out of his mouth!
Tell me what you think?
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